Cat 5 Hurricane Irma on its way – Path Uncertain… Forecasters Worry

Hurricane Irma, which was upgraded to a Category 3 storm on Thursday afternoon — and is likely to become a high-end Category 4 or 5 beast of a storm — is moving west over the open ocean about 720 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. On its current track, Irma is forecast to begin affecting the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, with Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and possibly the mainland U.S. in its sights after that. There are a few factors that worry hurricane forecasters more about this storm when compared to the myriad other tropical storms and hurricanes that tend to form in the Atlantic. 

cone graphic

The observed fluctuations in strength during the past day or so are
likely to continue for about another day while Irma remains over
marginally warm waters and in fairly close proximity to dry air.
Eyewall replacement cycles, like the one observed yesterday,
could occur, but forecasting the timing and duration of these are
not possible. After 24 hours, Irma is expected to move over
progressively warmer waters and into a more moist environment.
These more favorable conditions combined with low to moderate wind
shear should allow the hurricane to strengthen. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN, and it is fairly
similar to the previous advisory.

Irma is now moving due west at 12 kt. A subtropical high pressure
system to the north of the hurricane is expected to strengthen and
build westward during the next couple of days. This pattern should
cause Irma to move west-southwestward during that time. Thereafter,
a turn back to the west and then west-northwest is predicted in the
3-5 day time period when Irma moves on the south and southwest sides
of the high. Although the models agree on the overall scenario,
there remains about 200 n mi north-south spread among the
best-performing models on day 5. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the south at the longer-range points, and it is about
halfway between the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.


One thought on “Cat 5 Hurricane Irma on its way – Path Uncertain… Forecasters Worry

  • Bible Verses for Natural Disasters

    By: David Chiang

    *Yes; Find a Place to Weep for Dying Souls

    In light of all of this end-time disasters or turbulence, how can we prepare and pray through the disasters such as tornadoes and cyclones and earthquakes happening around us; near and far?

    As biblical warned, Matthew 24 talks about these disasters and famines; it has to happen. By the way Matthew 23; Jesus warns us what is hypocrisy in details actually.

    *Open their Eyes Lord; open their Lips Lord and Open their Hearts Lord

    God’s invitation is for us to enter into urgent watchfulness. How can we help disaster victims and war-torn nations through our prayers and our lives? In looking closer to home, how can we ourselves learn to trust God as our refuge during times of disaster?

    We read in Psalm 5:11-12:
    “But let all who take refuge in you be glad; let them ever sing for joy. Spread your protection over them that those who love your name may rejoice in you. For surely, O Lord, you bless the righteous; you surround them with your favor as with a shield.”

    “Have no fear of sudden disaster or of the ruin that overtakes the wicked, for the Lord will be your confidence and will keep your feet from being snared”
    (Proverbs 3:25-26).

    “Have mercy on me, O God, have mercy on me, for in you my soul takes refuge. I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings until the disaster has passed. I cry out to God Most High, to God, who fulfills his purposes for me
    (Psalm 57:1-2).

    Psalm 46 is A Psalm of Comfort
    “God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble. Therefore we will not fear, though the earth give way and the mountains fall into the heart of the sea, though its waters roar and foam and the mountains quake with their surging. Selah. There is a river whose streams make glad the city of God, the holy place where the Most High dwells. God is within her, she will not fall; God will help her at break of day. Nations are in uproar, kingdoms fall; he lifts his voice, the earth melts. The Lord Almighty is with us; the God of Jacob is our fortress. Selah. Come and see the works of the Lord, the desolations he has brought on the earth. He makes wars cease to the ends of the earth; he breaks the bow and shatters the spear, he burns the shields with fire. ‘Be still, and know that I am God; I will be exalted among the nations, I will be exalted in the earth.’ The Lord Almighty is with us; the God of Jacob is our fortress. Selah.”

Comments are closed.